Like most people in these parts I’m keeping a weather eye on Isabel. The most detailed public information to be had appears to be from the NOAA National Hurricane Center’s discussions, which are filed by the forecasters along with the official data for their reports. I can make out about 75% of the language with my lay-person’s knowledge. Most of the ones I’ve seen have been signed by a “Forecaster Franklin.” These dispatches are much more informative than anything I’ve been getting through the mainstream press. So, thank you Forecaster Franklin.
Here’s the latest:
WITH THE DETERIORATION OF THE CENTRAL CORE…ADDITIONAL WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW INCREASING ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER ISABEL AS A RESULT OF A DIGGING AND NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE HURRICANE IN THE 24 HOURS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. FOR THIS REASON…THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALLOWS FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING. IT IS POSSIBLE…HOWEVER…THAT THE CIRCULATION COULD BECOME SO DISRUPTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO THAT ISABEL WOULD BE UNABLE TO RESPOND TO THE MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.
Update: The Washington Post has a pretty good piece on computer modeling and other forecasting techniques.
Posted by mgk at September 16, 2003 01:13 PMThere's something really lovely in that -- Isabel may be unable to respond to the more favorable upper-level forcing.
I mean, isn't that just the way?
(I make light, but you guys back east are in my thoughts.)
Posted by: KF at September 16, 2003 01:38 PM | Link to Comment